💡 10 Interesting Trends After 75 Drafts

In this week's P.O. Box:

I recently completed my 75th streamed Best Ball Mania draft, which marks the halfway point for an ambitious goal that I outlined at the beginning of the summer.

I thought it would be fun to review my portfolio before we enter the homestretch and look at my favorite players, biggest fades, most utilized constructions, and a handful of other nuggets and oddities.

S/o to the Fantasy Life Best Ball Hub and Michael Dubner’s Best Ball Exposure Tracker for helping me display all of this information (both are completely free tools), as well as to both Dubner and Producer Nick for helping compile it.

Let’s dive in…

#1: My guys: LRQBs, Seahawks, and young breakouts

Because I’m a bit of a portfolio bro at heart—and also because I’ve drafted 26 of the 75 teams with guests—my exposures are relatively smoothed out (these idiot streamers don’t have player taeks).

That said, here are the ten players I’m more than double the field on (17%+) , with no tight ends meeting the criteria:

I’ve been doing lots of late-round QB builds this year—more on that in a sec—which has funneled me to lots of Sam Howell and Kenny Pickett. I wish I could lop off some of that Howell exposure and turn it into more Brock Purdy (5%), but I’m mostly comfortable with these stands. I’d like to get Desmond Ridder (5%) boosted as well, since all of these guys fit a very specific criteria to be targeting.

James Cook is my favorite way to attack the Bills offense this year.

I’m targeting one of the Seahawks backs in every draft, but Charbonnet is the cheaper one and going in the exact same spot Kenneth Walker was last year.

Breece Hall would be a Top 5 pick this year if he didn’t get hurt as a rookie. We’ll need to dodge the Dalvin wrench, but his legendary upside profile available in the late third is a gift.

I take a Dolphins RB in virtually every draft (more on that below). I’d prefer to be a little higher on Devon Achane than Mostert, but the cost difference is significant.

Tyler Lockett being my top WR is funny, considering I’m a massive JSN bull. It’s more a product of 1) really liking the Seahawks offense 2) fading DK Metcalf at his expensive price and 3) almost always selecting a WR at 5/6 turn in avalanche drafts. This number is going to almost for sure drop going forward and feels slightly gross to me (despite every analyst loving Lockett).

I don’t see any difference in the floor/ceiling combos between Treylon Burks in the 6th round and guys like Drake London and DJ Moore in the 4th. I will continue to aggressively target him.

Tyquan Thornton and Marvin Mims represent two of the only WR selections after pick 150 with legitimate breakout potential. They also unlock more detours away from WRs in the early rounds if value presents itself.

You can see my exposures to the above players impacting my overall exposures to those offenses:

#2: Scary (and surprising) fades

The most notable full fade in my BBM4 portfolio right now is zero Calvin Ridley. Like stone zero. I imagine this will change, but I can’t make sense of his price in the third round. He’s a great story, but drafters are making some pretty big assumptions about a guy who hasn’t played football for a couple years in an offense with plenty of target competition.

I also have 0% Adam Thielen and Jerrick McKinnon.

I should have 0% Ezekiel Elliott and Odell Beckham, but you can blame Pat for those. There are some pretty interesting fades who I’ve only selected once:

The Chubb and Barkley fades are scary, but I straight up prefer the five backs going after them, so it’s been a tough click:

If I’m making such a hard fade on Ridley, I should probably take the (slight) discount on Kirk more.

#3: Tough times for Influencer 1.01s

I’ve gotten lots of comments that I seem to always get a late pick. Well, the data can confirm:

I’m slightly below expected on Influencer 1.01s, which is fitting since I’m a slightly below average influencer.

I honestly don’t mind picking from the back of the round in WR Avalanche rooms because it allows me to get two top WRs and often catch insane RB value at the 3-4 turn (like Jacobs and Hall).

#4: One Bears or Dolphins RB in virtually every draft

41% Dolphins RB: Raheem Mostert (17%), Jeff Wilson (15%), Devone Achane (9% )

35% Bears RB: Khalil Herbert (15%), D’Onta Foreman (12%), Roschon Johnson (8%)

I (obviously) love these two backfields. All of these guys are available after pick 115 and are in environments conducive to RB points (The San Fran run scheme rebooted in Miami; Chicago the run-heaviest team in the league last year). One guy will likely be the odd man out in each backfield, but it’s impossible not to take shots when you have great odds at a small win and a legitimate chance at a league-winner.

#5: Week 17 szn (an AFC West shootout?)

I’m fairly spread out on my Week 17 stacks, which makes sense because I don’t ever go out of my way to stack a specific game.

The only one that stands out to me as light is the Rams/Giants game, considering I really like a lot of pieces on those two teams, specifically the plethora of pass-catchers in the double-digit rounds.

Most of my Chargers/Broncos love (25% of my teams have a stack from this game) is being driven by my heavy Mims bags. I like this distribution:

#6: Am I actually a value hound??

One funny thing about my drafts is that they are all over the place. In one room I’ll be grabbing Kamara 30 spots after ADP, in another I’ll be reaching three rounds ahead of market for Skyy Moore (thanks Shawn!).

There is one simple thematic element to my value selections and it’s that most of my values are players I don’t like and I’m using the discount to get some exposure, where the worst value instances are probably the best representation of guys I think have an ability to massively outperform their cost, helping to soften the blow of the reach.

#7: Oh no, I thought I was a Zero RB bro

A combination of 1) bellcow upside in the third round 2) attractive dead zone RBs like Gibbs, Etienne, and Walker and 4) WR Avalanche rooms pushing me to the RB value and 4) not many late round Zero RB targets early in the offseason has pushed me to more Anchor RB and Double Anchor RB builds than normal:

I plan to start ramping up my Zero RB builds soon, as we start to get more viable dart throws thanks to training camp and preseason reshuffling.

#8: Capitulating on the triple onesies

One big stylistic change for me in drafting this year has been a willingness to do more 3QB and 3TE builds.

For QB, the combination of getting access to a third stack in the playoffs has been attractive and it’s also been a way to combat the expensive price tags on Elite QBs.

For TE, it’s been a way to avoid dead roster spots in the late rounds considering the plethora of options with both job security and legitimate upside.

Please ignore the single 4TE build which was a challenge on the Swolecast. I will never capitulate to ROBUST TE.

#9: My favorite stacks (sorry, premium stack bros)

Kenny Pickett is my highest exposure at QB, which has made his pairing with Pat Freiermuth my most drafted stack:

I do not have many of the premium stacks (gulp):

• 0: Kelce/Mahomes and AJB/Hurts and Andrews/Lamar

• 1: Diggs/Allen

• 3: Hurts/Smith

• 5: Burrow/Higgins

• 6: Burrow/Chase

#10: Plan of attack for last 75

This exercise has definitely revealed a bunch of blind spots in my portfolio and things I’d like to gently correct down the home stretch. I say “gently” because I’m never going to force stuff, but these things will be more front and center on my mind in the last 75 drafts:

• More Zero RB (mostly from the late picks because the WR value in the early third is non-existent)

• More Kyle Pitts (and Elite TE builds)

• More Brock Purdy and Desmond Ridder to match Pickett and Howell

• More JSN to match Lockett

• More Vikings stacks

If you’d like to see my talk through all of these portfolio trends, I’m firing up a stream this afternoon with some friends from the Deposit Kingdom swinging by:

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