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š 100 Foot Waves & 13K Foot Dives
Why tho??
In this week's P.O. Box:
On risk and consequence
Stream roundup: Draft szn rolls on
On my radar: Breakfast flex
Like many of you, I spent the past few days closely following the sad and bizarre Titanic submersible story (with it even spilling over into some of my shows, sometimes purposefully and sometimes inadvertently).
Iāve also been watching the second season of 100 Foot Wave on HBO (err Max), a show that follows a crew of big wave surfers as they attempt to survive and conquer one of the largest waves in the world in the small fishing village of NazarĆ©, Portugal.
I always find it fascinating to learn about the different internal motivations and justifications that compel these adventure seekers to risk their life with these seemingly irrational pursuits.
I remember this topic gaining national attention when Alex Honold free solo-ascended El Capitan. Iāll never forget his response to people who told him he had a death wish:
I mean, a lot of people sort of conflate risk with the consequences. You know, people look at free soloing, and they're, like, oh, that's very risky. But, you know, the risk is the likelihood that something bad is actually going to happen. You know, the consequences are what will actually happen if something bad occurs. So, I mean, with free soloing, the consequences are always really high, but sometimes the climbing is super-easy, so the risk is really, really low because there's basically no chance that you would fall off.
On 100 Foot Wave, legendary surfer Garrett McNamara certainly falls into the Honold mold of an elite athlete who requires the constant drip of dopamine, adrenaline, and endorphins that comes from thrill-seeking. Surfing consumes him to the point that he relocates his pregnant wife from their home in Hawaii to NazarƩ so he could surf up until the birth of their third child.
But some of the surfers on the show have different motivations aside from raw, uncut thrill-seeking.
A lot of the second season takes place in the wake of COVID, an event that put the surfing circuit and sponsorship money on hold. When things opened back up, semi-professional surfers felt the need to take shots on big waves and make a name for themselves with only a handful of golden ticket sponsorships up for grabs.
Itās one thing to go shot taking in a GPP you donāt have the proper bankroll for, itās another animal to get towed into one of the least forgiving waves on the planet when you arenāt prepared for the challenge.
Thatās what makes the Titanic submersible story so bizarre. I assume the five, extremely wealthy individuals getting on the OceanGate dinghy each did their own risk/consequence calculations (whether explicitly or subconsciously).
I would be fascinated to know what percentage chance they assigned to things failing and costing them their life. What would the number need to be to tip the scales in favor of not taking the risk to peer through a tiny little hole at 13,000 feet below the surface to stare at wooden rubble?
5%? 1%?? .01%???
I mean, youād have to really fucking love the Titanic to even risk a one-in-a-thousand chance at losing your life. And I have to imagine the true odds of that sub holding up at 6,000 PSI are much shorter than .01%.
Which really does beg the questionā¦why?
I guess itās slightly easier for me to understand what compels Honold and McNamara. In addition to fueling their deep desire for thrills, at least there is notoriety, sponsorships, and money at the end of the rainbow.
But Iām struggling to understand the risk/reward calc for an underwater mission to depths that world class Naval outfits have no interest in exploring themselves.
This wasnāt a Honold situation where they had reduced their risk with hundreds of dress rehearsals, test runs, and studying. The consequence and the risk were both very high in the case of the submersible mission.
So for what? An Instagram flex post? Another story to put in the cocktail party quiver?
Probably just boredom. Who knows, though? The human mindāspecifically of those with unfathomable amounts of moneyāis a bizarre thing.
All I know is that Iāll stick to my basement and limit my shot taking endeavors to best ball tournaments.
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Tonight night at 9pm ET the Best Ball After Dark streams roll on with Fantasy Lifeās Dwain McFarland. Join us for some drinks, discussion about Dwainās background, best ball, high stakes fantasy, and a BBM4 draft. Become a YouTube member here for access.
Shout out to the aptly named āElon Muskularā from the Deposit Kingdom for wearing the new Best Ball Breakfast tank as well as you possible canā¦
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