🎯 My Favorite Targets In BBMV

1/3rd of the way there...

In this week's P.O. Box:

  • 10 takeaways through 50 BBM drafts

  • Stream roundup: Portfolio reviews

  • Offszn Book Club: The River of Doubt is a wild read

  • On My Radar: Davis Mattek is a free agent

I’m 50 drafts deep into Best Ball Mania V, so I spent this week reviewing my portfolio on Fantasy Life and sharing my Top 10 takeaways in a new video on the Deposit Kingdom channel.

Here are ten interesting nuggets about my player exposures so far…

😭 Uh, oh I have only 2% CeeDee Lamb

This one terrifies me because it’s entirely fueled by randomness. I've only gotten two 1.02 slots through 50 drafts (h/t Michael Dubner’s best ball tracker for that info), which means I’ve had very few opportunities to get Lamb. This should hopefully even out over the next 100.

🧠 I’ve been IKB’ing Garrett Wilson over AJB in Round 1

I’m a big proponent of just taking the best player available by ADP in Round 1, but I have been overruling ADP by taking Garrett Wilson over A.J. Brown. That said, even though I think Wilson is a superstar who could be a Top 5 pick next year (provided his QB ever returns from his walkabout or whatever), I think this % disparity is probably too overconfident. I’m gonna get back to taking AJB at ADP.

🧊 Is it time to chill on Malik Nabers?

I don’t think there’s a big difference between pick 13 and pick 26 in drafts this year, which coincidentally is the range of players bookended by two rookies—Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers. I think you can pretty easily make the case that Nabers has a similar range of outcomes as MHJ, which makes him a slam dunk arbitrage selection in the middle of Round 3. I’m currently sitting at 24%, roughly 3x the field.

That said, now that he’s been inching up boards, I’ll prolly start getting the three WRs going directly after him a bit more:

By the way, you can check out your exposures, player combos, and Week 17 stack exposures for free with the Fantasy Life Best Ball Hub.

⚖️ I need to re-balance some of my Elite TE exposures

I’m all-in on Elite TE this year, but a weird thing has played out where I have 27% Mark Andrews compared to 6% Dalton Kincaid. I obviously prefer Andrews to Kincaid, but my confidence interval there is not 4x, as the exposures would seem to indicate. It’s time for me to capitulate to BIG LIAM and grab some more Kincaid at the 4/5 turn.

Because I’m hammering Elite TE, I have a lot of scary fades in this Round 4/5 range. We discussed those on this week’s Ship Chasing.

🥾 Taking a stand on Jordan Addison

I just could not bring myself to click rookies with shaky prospect profiles like Ladd McConkey and Keon Coleman over Addison. Addison is a second-year WR who flashed in Year 1 and won’t have to contend with T.J. Hockenson for targets for most of the season.

Similarly, I’m taking Addison over vets like Calvin Ridley and Chris Godwin, so I’ve ended up with a grip of him (20%). This is a stand I’m perfectly content with and don’t plan on adjusting anytime soon.

💥 Brock Bowers & Jonathan Brooks are slam dunks

I have 22% Brooks and 20% Bowers.

Brooks is a pretty easy sell where he’s going. He’s the best rookie back in this class and will quickly take over the Panthers backfield when he’s healthy. The when there is why we are getting a discount, but in these tournaments where the backweighted production is king, he’s such a smash.

With Bowers, we are getting a massive landing spot discount on one of the best TE prospects ever. He’s a way better player than a multiple rookie WRs going ahead of him, so this is an obvious “bet on talent” spot. He’s my one big exception to prioritizing the Top 7 TEs in drafts because he has the ability to join that cohort down the stretch.

🔮 This year’s Raheem Mostert/DeVon Achane?

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