🏈 Do You Know Ball?

In this week's P.O. Box:

The “you know ball” thing is a funny phenomenon.

It’s a great bit when used ironically, though there is still a fair amount of wannabe NFL scouts and film grinders who exchange the phrase unironically as a way to jerk each other off for possessing so much more ball knowledge than the average idiot fan or fantasy footballer.

I’ll occasionally get shit for openly admitting that I don’t watch every second of every game (partly because I’m an #EastCoastDad and partly because the island game product can be truly awful).

It’s something that seems to greatly offend the sensibilities of ball knowers and the mensa-level geniuses who would never miss a final Tyrod Taylor drive at the end of an abysmal MNF game with 23 total points.

It’s why I loved Youdacao’s mic drop line last week on LOLz when I asked him how much of his DFS success he attributes to knowing ball vs. numbers:

I rely on sites like ETR and Run The Sims to know ball for me and synthesize it into a projection.

I consume everything that JMToWin and Shawn Siegele and Ben Gretch and Pat Kerrane and Dwain McFarland write because they collectively watch all of the games and listen to all of the press conferences for me and synthesize the ball knowing into actionable takeaways so I can spend my time cleaning up throw up and hanging in the sauna.

If you have good projections and you tail the right people, you know ball.

One thing that has become synonymous with “knowing ball” in the fantasy football tout space is wanting to “be right.”

And if you’ve spent any time on X, you know that most fantasy pundits care far more about being right than they do about actually winning.

I don’t even necessarily blame them, either. The incentives are not properly aligned:

> Pundits need a public track record of Ws to maintain a good reputation

> Fantasy players need to finish in the Top .01% of contests for a big score

> Pundits are incentivized to give plays/picks that have a higher probability of hitting (chalk analysis) and are not incentivized to tout thinner plays with wider ranges of outcomes that could embarrass them when they are wrong

> Fantasy players often need thinner, less popular plays with a wider range of outcomes to win large contests

It’s a pretty sick dynamic when you think about it.

“Knowing ball” is certainly valuable. In fact, I’m very jealous of all the ball knowers who grinded 69 hours of Rams training camp film and knew Puka Nacua was going to be our generation’s Julian Edelman.

But the real value of ball knowing comes from how that knowledge is actually applied and what you win when you are right.

You should have seen the chat last Friday on my DFS strategy show when JM started our lineup build with the Desmond Ridder/Drake London/Jonnu Smith vomit stack:

It was not a comfortable or easy thing to tout. No one liked it. And guess what? Most of the time it flops and people troll JM for a bad call.

But when it hits? Well, people win a literal million dollars like they did in Week 6 with the Falcons vomit stack.

If you primarily play tournaments and large contests, fade the people who only care about being right and tail the original thinkers who care about winning and aren’t afraid to look silly while going against the grain and scrolling the eff down.

💎 Week 7 Hidden Gems for Battle Royale & DFS. Wrote about my favorite off-the-radar plays for Underdog contests this week.

☕️ Falcons Vomit Stack, Fields Flop & A Pick ‘Em Bink. On this week's Pourtfolio Review, we review our DFS lineups on DraftKings, including a mixed bag with a Justin Fields team and a Desmond Ridder squad. We also check in on our Underdog teams, after getting 50 entries in the Battle Royale and 11 entries in the Dawg Bowl and celebrate a pick 'em entry that saved the day. Finally, we review our Best Ball Mania IV portfolio and some provocative violin plots.

🏆️ Fantasy Life roundup. Recapped the Eagles and Niners taking their first Ls and the Rams backfield that is up for grabs.

☣️ Who is the Greatest DFS Player of All Time? We welcome back high stakes DFS pro Whistlesgowoo (aka David Bergman) to talk DFS, the best players in DFS, why he's incorporating ownership into his process more these days, and why he thinks sim products are failed.

💪 Swolecast: Draftkings Week 7 picks. Ty Bagent in cash?

🚢 #ShipCast: Pick 'Em Binks, Big Giveaway, Evan Silva & Taco Bell!. The Ship Chasing crew sweat the Jags/Saints game and hit both of their main Pick 'em entries on Underdog Fantasy. Evan Silva swings by in the second quarter to talk about Travis Etienne ROS and how to value Michael Mayer. Steph Miller joins after halftime to help us decode the Rams backfield. Things go off the rails in the fourth after the Christian Kirk TD shipped the Pick 'ems and unlocked the $600 giveaway. We wrap up by ordering Taco Bell and ripping a couple of Dawg Bowl drafts.

🍾 NFL Week 7 - Underdog Draft Strategy. The Club previews the Week 7 NFL slate on Underdog, rips some drafts, and tries to punch a ticket to Miami.

📈 3 TEs Ready To Breakout, Usage Trends & Week 7 Plays. Drico & Sack breakdown all the important usage and trends from Week 6 to help you better prepare for waivers, trades, and DFS contests leading into Week 7. Topics discussed: CJ Stroud continues to be the best rookie QB, are we underrating Tampa Bay's offense, Breece Hall the workhorse, James Cook a sneaky buy low, breakout TE options, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua target hogs, and can Jameson Williams break through?

📊 Ship Chasing High Stakes Team Reviews & Week 7 Waiver Roundup. Steph recaps our high stakes teams and a Rams RB-themed waiver week.

We got 4 shows on tap before the Week 7 main slate kicks off…

🧩 Block Party: Week 7 DFS Plays & GPP Strat w/ JMToWin

⏱️ Off & On The Clock: Week 7 Draft Party w/ Badge Bros

🥃 DFS After Dark: Interview & DFS Build w/ Neil Orfield

🤓 Week 7 DFS Cram: Top GPP Plays & Hidden Gems

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